the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, the welcome to into part treated entire tree total security or additions for peace . a last thing settlement of the premium conflict would require a different given takes from each of the parties. but 1st, they would probably have to part with the own sense of righteousness does the historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that . i'm now joined by geoffrey roberts emeritus professor of history of the university college park. professor roberts has always a great pleasure, personal pleasure to talk to you. but on top of that,

i'm far to in the some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. where do you think we are in a, in this the battle of what stage? the conflict tests taken? i think um my, my, my current phase over and we're in a very dangerous not much of the danger royce, this is the same thing. you said last time we talk what it's actually i think it's more districts, god bless you have more time just yes, because the closer but the ukraine comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is again about powerful extreme. his voice is becoming so it is quite possible that we may see some extreme actions to bolster up ukraine's defense. and then obviously there will be a danger of escalation arising out those actions. what do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west?

because it's clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. but what about the wes 12? i mean, thought, oh the token anomaly is the introduction of western troops in some phone. that issue seems to be on the age. and again, there's also talk about the no fly songs. yeah. old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which a west of lead is the refuse to come to play of that that time. but that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be i'd be more and we talk about seriously, and i'd be more multiple about your sex. now. i don't, i don't think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the boots on the ground or some kind of um, app our intervention. it wasn't bates us a lot precipitated waterboard roster. that won't be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know. because obviously

russia, i don't think will, will allow those that those actions you, i'd wonder if, if, if there was some trends on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked by russia. and the same goes for, for western ethel's involvement. now, uh, something like this was contemplated 2 years ago, but as you say, it says to have more precious power. i'm on home. i mean, does it have more purchase power am on the people at large and why would that be the case? because i mean, it's pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army, 2 years ago, the prison positions were defeated. the to say the least way. it certainly doesn't have in the purchasing public opinion in the west, the old if the older public opinion died. so we have, you know, assistant, yes the, you know, pop popular opinions, moving in the direction of a way from one the direction of peace in simple some kind of compromise based on what the nights. so particular western countries to do. do something recklessly introduced you. it's okay to get more involved, right, because it's still been

a no most kind of like out this, the popular opposition, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. so how strong these voices in favor of direct tensional it's, it's difficult to say, i mean that, that does that sadly. a lot of them at the moment, i mean, they're out the rock concept, their accounts voices. and, but i, you know, i think, i think it was, we might assist a popup of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of, you know, assist an escalation, one escalation of the, of a. so they've done it so often has almost become the actual so i think i, i will be be shocked by will be surprised if they types of escalators that do you take this escalation as i calculated tactic. in other words, when people uh, raise a bit and see it, do they actually understand, are they conscious of what they're doing? and you know, they possible a reply from the i, i think is it, it's partly

a calculated tactic. but i think it's also an emotional advice talk to because they've taught themselves into a position, but i basically sounds there. right, right, right. i really believe that if they lose, do you cry new for us, your wins and then you try is going to be the end of the west as low as we now, you know, we're going to be to the, it won't know, it won't know. it won't happen, and that's important that we know to be done actually poly into that, that, that disco, so no, no, do you train, you train? what would be a huge blow tonight? so and for west west, for stage it will be critical. be cried before highs. of prices rise enough, but no i, i think the west of all just we know at night. so we're west and palace of i think what will remind unless the wall goes on and on. this and russia penetrates even multi p into frank. russia comes to occupy the whole decry, and then the walk, continuation of yeah, in that kind of extreme situation. yeah. that then possibly we are looking at the a much more the baptist elliptic outcome. let's discuss something that you and

a number of other western schoolers proposed wisdom found that is a compromise to this war. in fact, hughes suggested in one of your recent articles that budget reports and can solve this more by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraine's membership of mater. why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call? so it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement, then that you got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of what's left of the ukraine started off to the wall, right? that's the 1st point. it's got that the 2nd part is the night. so on the west of the politically it retire. there's hardly a what funny, very, very difficult to difficult to back away from accepting you, trying into nights and members, even even under conditions dictated by russia. that's the 2nd. and the 3rd thing um,

yep. strategically having ukraine in they say what type of advantages from the west and by the beautiful it would mean that you have your trade in lights. i was left of it less than your crime presented like what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on russia. ok. this process would be the militarize zone dominated by say there's no nuclear weapons, all kind of restrictions. but nevertheless, you'd have an independence pro western nice of member viewpoint actions above the folks that are real kinds of good reasons for. so yeah, the west united states matrix to accept such a deal. now it keep mentioning this phrase, ukraine or what's left of it. and i think that's the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that was what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and what's the security parameter will lie. whether it's formal or informal and clearly

a mosque was interested in pushing it further into your crane. but i'm not sure if the wants to push it as far as, let's say, western ukraine of it. it's very hostile and add to russian population. now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary eclipse live organically for there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. i, i think, as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime and until the before the for additional provinces. and that in any way, that's the only option that leads to call and fost rush. why is the base guide brush those, those territories apart. also put the above upon the choose you the so that's that, that, that, that, that's, that's, that's the minimum. how far you go beyond that? yeah, it depends on, on auto,

on the war. okay. some people will argue that that may be a huge goes far as hawk of as far as a desa. the problem with that is, yes, that may will, in a way that may, will be a natural cause historical cultural political badly. but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied stock of down to the end, the end of the desa. okay. but the bottom line is, i, i don't see russia expanding any further into your cry done under the need for now . it also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine. and it's western beckers would have to give the quote, cost iron commitments to ukraine's permanent demilitarization or beat within the framework of nathan membership. and the 1st of all, i, i'm not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness, alpha, quote, unquote, the western commitments. but on top of that, you know, demilitarised within the nature of framework, isn't it a bit like, i don't know,

it's a writer with wipers, but well behaving mice, i mean, like even if and ukraine is the militarized and like it's not the ukraine, that is a problem for russia, it's beta. what, what do i do there is of kind of precedent for this kind of green because because when um, east germany was united with west job then became a spell and you have the kind of thought of nights of the agreement was the friend at that point. uh, to the rush hour associates unit to best restaurants, but it's only the danger ensure, but the pain was that there will be no nitro expansion into each to. i mean, it goes to populate from nature nature, then expand the trees. joe, do a cause expand? it is a baltic state, suppose i have to add another country. so for all precedents for the conditions on that one on, on the, on the, on lights, those a night nitrogen expansion. yeah. now i think there is also a more recent precedent that could support your case. the case of tra, k, a number of russian leaders, including pointers himself, said that having trick is

a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that culture, which is an extra roll competitor, original competitor for russia. and i can see that the logic being applied to your brain, but i struggled to understand why i would made so want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized. uh, very limply angry country or whatever left with as part of it. so no direct line is usually important point. there is no fee for the russian part view. it's not ukraine's membership per site match at all. i have a match out. it was something that was the nighttime military built up in the use of the ukraine as a tool for. absolutely. so if you pray that was left, it becomes a law of a night of the under different conditions. then it's not such a, it's not such a frightening development. we asked a question about, you know, why should it this issue of trust? you're looking at the trust cost both why so this is trust issues on both sides. and the only way to, to work through the issue is to actually might make,

make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements like the, you know, as the rest of the like to say, uh, yeah, you know, trust, but very flock. but i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. why would may to want, i mean, i had the sounds made of logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram against pressure. but if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry intentions for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure. why would they need and because they're losing all the benefits of that policy, i'm assuming all the cost high. i, i think for political reasons, i mean that that's why i'm not 50 thought. yeah. my, i well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of nato? honda. so conditions that could be part of to the i was trying to think of a lie to police equally, given the, what the west, the way out politically to back off from, for the,

for of the war with russia for of abrupt proxy what that but that was my kind of kind of reasoning so i think, you know, yeah, it would pay them no most kind of challenges and all of us from all kinds of dysfunction, i'm sure that we plan the voices that we'd like to sign up. we shouldn't, we shouldn't do this, but i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually to august back on your crime completely and forever. i refused to allow an instant into membership. yeah, quote, professor roberts, i hope you're right on that. but even though i'm, you know, to some extent it's uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. you're saying it's no, i'm not making a prediction error or prophecy. i'm not sure what's gonna happen if i gets, i'm likely. well, i, i know what's gonna happen right now because we're going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just

a few moments extension the the, to take a fresh look around this life kaleidoscopic isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power to division with no real live indians. fixtures design to simplify. it will confuse who really wants a better wills,

and is it just as a chosen few. fractured images presented as 1st? can you see through their illusion going underground, can the extra weight of the parts best? geoffrey roberts emeritus professor of history at university college park. now professor roberts, before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and they does logic. let's talk about the brain right now. and i think that's a very interesting case study because it's hard to find another country the size of your brain. that's what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental security guarantees for itself. and i mean, even israel, for example,

and other clients they is very showed about um, you know, ensuring its own base. but the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the calculus of kids here? yeah, i did. it is, this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. i mean for you to once, that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses. you have to fight to, to fight on. it obviously is to do with the power between you and ashley's date. emotional power, as well as the police could probably be burnt, the district that'd be one say, i think secondly, there was this um, cuz fife belief in the west in western supposed $99.00 in western power so that i persuaded themselves that i could, they could, they could win this war in some,

uh its in some form. okay. now having tried that actually effectively last last the wall that just, um they just playing on the and waiting for something, something, something, something happened something to, to turn up. but look, um yeah, i could probably pick them up public depending if of the opinion you're trying to shift as well. well, the opinion data i've seen is that there's a gradual shift from all of the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the need. the areas coverage occupied by you guys who want a compromise space. i think secondly, you know, you know, the d you training and the police establish normally 5 i yeah. that they're out there. all kind of elements we've been established, or maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the video shy, pacing a for see piece it says as a basis is made the best solution for you right now. so give me a 9 to perspective that will be introduced. decide, let's just have a personal question that have ukranian votes and your credit is a very interesting collective psych you to me because i think it's has both very

large entitlement and a very large material order to complex. you mentioned the, you know, the power of its national was meant to me is a little bit like me there who is the right. it took you, it's on her own children because she didn't get something. and historically, i think this, you are a, was channeled very conveniently on to russia. but once you clean becomes part of the west archer concerned that they so the of the target of its blames will shift. what you describe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nationalism. i know that your crime is not particularly small side based as the most i associate getting smaller the only size is most tight associated with a, a big state. and quite often what, you know, what you, what you described this sense of the, in combination of in type sense, we talked about and inferior article back. very,

very typical of the nationalism. oh, i'll go out of a small size. so, you know, like that, that's not the origin. that's not unusual. but many other states, uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around, even poland. well pulling to a lesser extent, that they've been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. and this is what i want to ask you about because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a national hardship to produce the kinds of leaves cool, understand the dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of that population, but also whereas we, enough to position the country within the original and global context to go printers benefits for, for the people. yeah. but that's, that's what happened for you. cried was thoughtful. so for uh, you know, for the 1st up to 25 years of independence of crime. that's exactly the gaming ukraine. like really? yes, absolutely. until until 2014, when you get this definitive kind of split upon

a few crime oaks definitively for the west and dice with the old years back to professor roberts, i think you're going to have some of the best conditions post soviet collapse. they had some of the best economies. they had pretty wide industrial base. they have a, you know, with land. they have a lot of people. they have the good graces of the west. they also have the good had the good, the basis of russia because russia was eager to keep them within the it's not within the, within it's or the done it within its economic environment. and yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know, done something that, that, that the sun dos i'd love corruption. i know so that they also kind of hide if the divisions, if the political divisions didn't die, what that meant was to be cried, never transitioned out of the ninety's, the kind of coyote politics of the non discontinued or the what all the way for the articles to go see the new crime that i never had a breach,

and tracy come and fix some stability is the power all the sites that you know, some old i'm petrol and some and some directors of very unfortunate success. a concise for you. right? but going back to the point where i think the once to will, if was i was to was either if you have was left of your train, becomes part of the west and sub for which is already bought west. and that's all kinds of jobs are for your crime. he is a kind of a gonna sell it on the west of that point, that they're going to have a very, very different view and feeding tools to west when they see what's happened to the country. that they have the full, this proxy war on be around the office on the off was and i've suffered a shoot kind of trauma shoes, the damage issues last a lot. i'm actually, i don't say they're going to play rushman. the russians like that good is back on the line that the so called western elijah in order to be a self sufficient country. they have to accept the, you know, for me was blame on, on you for me twice. blame on me. i mean, they,

sooner or later they will have to extend our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny and you know, also develop some acumen and shrewdness in dealing with the nature of it. but do you see developing i, i'm, i may be maybe not, i'm not sure i pull up to be a self sufficient country with any kind of life. some of the people in the western alliance. yeah. but, but they oh, shoot for you to be an independent cut. they need, they need very at least they need to keep a desk or at least access to a desk or the probably know. so i need to get the symbolic reasons they need to keep hawk up as well. the for most go now in the quantity of whatever the they, i think that you know that they're not there yet. but the prospect of a major military defeat or, or your training ministry flats, which get a fraction, a russian taken of a desperate hawk of it was all part of the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop to mean to actually come into the senses and to enter in a make them making the data right. i, i give you a, oh,

can you just give me up on this more, right. i'm making the necessary concessions to rush. right. you're very, you're very good. and i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat your enemies in order to create, you know, conditions for last and peace. it was the case both with the french and the, you know, with the germans as well. i think that's something that i think that's another very important part to modify. but the kind of argument behind, but i'm putting that, you know, that russia should make this very choose concession of allowing ukraine or poppy trying to become, become a member. and i to understand conditions is because i, i still russia want, has a wants to have the been having an attitude told you, you prying on ukrainians as, as, as, as a people. and if that actually truth holds,

fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations with you cried new state, i would be frightening people on a collaborative friend friendship. i re recreate some com, some furniture neighborhood, the anything, any paper us anything got you know like that then that, that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you crying last night, but likely, yes, he is quite a different thing. i remember hear you say they need to give something to your credit and like me to membership. and what i'm arguing for is that they have to consciously or recognize ukrainian dignity. and that's if the ukranian state is to exist as a stage, not just as a song fragment of native, but as a stain that has some potential for self sufficiency band. if it needs such a geographical by says, i have the impression that the list, the majority of russian public opinion and political repeatedly available, it would be on that page. uh, okay, that are a minority. if the russians nationalist suits the world, wants to go further than that. but i think that's where that,

that's where the said from these metals essential. that's one thing, strategy and politics. it is another on russia boots in the paper, russian, people really not going to consider the signature of what you get, a compromise, the russian secure. but it's not good that we can to that because it's not just about the ukraine. i mean, for russia either the roster, kind of have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of its had bigger. at the end of the day, we're all talking about the palm of european secure just structure. as i you written about it. you said that is the last thing, settlement of this conflict with require crating a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. and i think the russians that did that best trying to negotiate some way out of their predicament with nato. they weren't successful. washington said, no. is there anything possibly that's good. the 1st way to change is perspective. i thought i don't, i think the war. yeah. but you ukraine in the west, the faith in the war is it might affect your trying to. and that perspective on the

basis of you crying can become part of nights, also conditions. but that would need to be an overarching framework of common european security to act as a continuing with that. and is that 1st i thought a guarantee definitely, you know, for, for both sides. yeah. i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian for the, somebody's before the, i think actually been fine since the 19th to you strategy to create collective european security structures including the soviet union, including, including in russia. but i've always kind of what stumbled against the fundamental fact that the in the west roster was be seen as a rival in that. and when the apartment and a for it and it's quite track of it is tight and it may actually take this wall is tragic war to actually arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about correct pricing, comics come and security studies for professor robinson, this is going to be my last question for that to happen. what the west will have to

part with is the idea of that. you know, it controls events in the world cannot make ideological cultural everything else. and there is an opinion in russia, that's what russians are fighting against here. it is not just the, you know, part of your, of being secure destructor, that fighting against 500 years of western dominance. we just 1st and foremost, based on the western military dominance and wishing them both the soviet union in the 20th century. and i think russian more recently has managed to not necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west agrees to any sort of negotiations with russia . what does that effectively mean that it's in here over the world? the shutter is, i mean, like, uh, it will have to you right off i, i, that's a lot to me. so that's what you, that's what the point you just make. and it brings us back to the point. you're beginning of the, the discussion. why when you also, we are those to the situation to take the most and it's,

it's dangerous. this gets even more most i just found a way to get through both actors because in the west or at least a substantial since 6 of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself. on western new jermel is the 1st uh, self image. it says we understand. so if the superiority it's not constructed, what's going on you crying just being there any existence you bye bye to the if the if you chrysler this is the night to lose, you knew right then that going to lose that the nation, the dad germany on the west place of the world, and that's why the advertising, the most extreme measures to above a, that a good outcome. so, so that's when it comes down to it, you know, the fundamental obstacle that you have to any, this will of thousands lie and we've russia always booted or what it might do. it lies with, with the west. and what is it actually capable of changing is fundamental welfare, any septic accepting it, a different,

a different set of relationship with the prime refresher and in europe as a whole movement. and i would add to that, that ultimately what the west as the finding against is not the russian. it's fighting history and history. it has certain objective trends saying that even the west can know it's and again, but the, let's leave it for some other time. it's been great talking to you again. thank you . thanks very much. thank you for watching hope to hear again. it was a part of the

the, [000:00:00;00] the ussr as he's a rice, to more than 2000 people. and pro prophecy in demonstrations was called listings to go to the official definition. i'm to segment is i'm just silence this to me. i'm leaving it to rise. us trick, did the impressed misleading report caused by the way the media has popped up